[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141805 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-142000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA / FAR NRN FL / EXTREME SERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141805Z - 142000Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.  A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU INCREASING AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
UNCAPPED.  12Z TLH RAOB MODIFIED WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS YIELDS NO CAP WITH AND
AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE.  MODIFIED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SIMILAR.

WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ALONG COLD
FRONT SAGGING SWD OVER ERN GA...CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ALMOST
ANYWHERE WITHIN MD AREA. INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE GRADUAL DUE TO
LACK OF MID OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM.

STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS
WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCELLS...SOME SPLITTING.  RIGHT MOVERS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED AS THEY MOVE JUST SOUTH OF EAST...DUE TO RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

..JEWELL.. 03/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

32098081 31468119 30748144 30298142 30268402 30598424
32008354 32588283 32708183 32668005 

WWWW