[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141703 
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-142100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AZ..NWRN AZ AND SWRN CO MOUNTAIN S

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 141703Z - 142100Z

SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NERN AZ...NWRN NM AND THE SRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN 1 FOOT OF SNOW.

INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE...
ABOUT 50 NE OF LAS...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD TO NEAR IGM BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESULTING IN STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FROM
CENTRAL/NRN AZ NEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET...THAT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THIS STRONG LIFT COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES
SHOULD PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SWD INTO NWRN AZ WILL
PUSH THE FRONTOGENESIS SEWD AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AZ
BETWEEN 21-00Z...WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW DIMINISHING IN THAT AREA BY
THAT TIME.

..IMY.. 03/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

35271221 35971098 37230802 37570612 37400507 35870522
34470750 33410938 34581247 

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