[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141953 
TXZ000-NMZ000-150000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST MON MAR 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 141953Z - 150000Z

SNOWFALL RATE INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL RATES OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. THE HEAVY SNOW
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE SERN AZ/SWRN NM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NEAR TCS BY 00Z...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD THROUGH NWRN
AZ. THE EWD MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT
ACROSS ERN NM AND STRENGTHEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS
NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE...AHEAD OF AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EXITING JET
MAX LOCATED IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG 700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS
IS LIKELY TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN A 100 NM WIDE BAND THAT
WOULD STRETCH E-W ALONG I-40. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA
ALSO SHOW LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 TO 400 MB FROM 7-8C/KM... WHICH
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES.

..IMY.. 03/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

36130622 36470422 36370094 35140146 34790323 34640462
34770598 

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