[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140317 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-140445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN GA...CENTRAL AL...MS...CENTRAL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...

VALID 140317Z - 140445Z

PRIND REMAINING PORTIONS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 4Z. MEANWHILE BROKEN LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS EXTENDED AT 3Z
FROM CLEBURNE COUNTY AL SWWD TO VICINITY HEZ...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SEWD 10-15 KT AS CELLS MOVE GENERALLY EWD.  SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD DIMINISH BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH SWD/EWD EXTENT AS THIS
ACTIVITY EXITS WW.  OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR MINOR WIND
DAMAGE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER WW EXPIRES...HOWEVER WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF NIGHT.  ACTIVITY N OF WW
AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS NRN MS/AL MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT SHOULD NOT BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
WELL ORGANIZED TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW.

DIABATIC COOLING HAS REMOVED SBCAPE ACROSS REGION ALONG AND S OF SFC
COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED AT 3Z VERY CLOSE TO AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE LINE POSITION.  MUCAPE -- CURRENTLY ESTIMATED IN 400-800
J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF REGION -- WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS...THOUGH ENOUGH
BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST ALL NIGHT OVER SRN AL...SRN
MS AND PORTIONS GA AND SRN APPALACHIANS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

33558647 33808570 33738495 31868686 30789246 31049272
32139007 32458652 

32218977 33008985 33259080 33588649 32458650 

WWWW