[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140049 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-140245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST SUN MAR 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL AL...CENTRAL MS...N-CENTRAL/NERN
LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...

VALID 140049Z - 140245Z

SEVERE TSTMS WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING HAIL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN/ERN 
PORTIONS ORIGINAL WW AREA.  WW MAY CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED BEHIND
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS LA...HOWEVER ELEVATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BOTH IN AND N OF WW OVER PORTIONS MS/AL MAY POSE
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK.

00Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SSEWD
ACROSS REGION...LOCATED NEAR THE LINE RMG...10 S CBM...20 S MLU...25
SE LFK...VCT...COT.  FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SE TX AND WRN LA THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.  CELLS
WITHIN 10-15 NM AHEAD OF NEAR ZONALLY ALIGNED FRONTAL SEGMENT --
OVER NERN LA/MS/AL...MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
WITH ENHANCED SIGNIFICANT-HAIL THREAT AS THEY CROSS FRONT AND
ENCOUNTER ENHANCED LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY... BEFORE BECOMING ELEVATED
N OF FRONT.  2.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED PAST HALF HOUR HINDS COUNTY
MS...WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL THAT HAS BEEN RIGHT MOVING ENOUGH TO
STAY ALONG OR BARELY AHEAD OF FRONT.  4.25 INCH HAIL REPORT ALSO HAS
BEEN RECEIVED FROM MADISON PARISH LA.  MODIFIED JAN RAOB SHOWS
MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE PARCEL BUOYANCY DECREASING THROUGH 500-800 J/KG
RANGE...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASED DIABATIC SFC
COOLING.  STILL...GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEARS 50 KT...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS THERE IS ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED AND NEARLY SFC BASED CELLS -- FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS AT
LEAST.

..EDWARDS.. 03/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...SHV...LCH...HUN...MEG...

31849321 32329227 33219102 33588649 32458650 

32228930 32028974 31669076 31229224 31169311 31279329
31689322 31829319 

33229102 33659053 34508888 34938698 34688581 34258578
33508797 

WWWW