[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061953 
NMZ000-TXZ000-AZZ000-062200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NM...FAR WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061953Z - 062200Z

ISOLATED STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST NM...WEST OF ELP.  THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN REGION OF
WEAK UPWARD ASCENT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR WEST TX AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM BY EVENING. 
POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S...AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG NOTED.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO AIDING IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART.. 03/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...

31370960 33250920 34290751 34410566 33270512 32000503
30880533 31300627 31360738 31320842 

WWWW