[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050226 
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0826 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY INTO NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 050226Z - 050400Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL KY AND NWRN TN THROUGH 03-04Z...AND SPREAD ESEWD TOWARD
ERN KY AND NRN TN.  ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND SUPPORTED
BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED A MARKED INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND LIGHTNING SINCE 0130Z.  AREA VADS SHOWED
THE WSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENED TO 50 KT AROUND 01Z...INDICATIVE OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS RESPONDING TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN IL.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO TN COMBINED WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WHILE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -26 C AT
500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A GREATER SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK
INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 03/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

35528858 36348938 37028903 37728769 38258496 38478384
37958296 36488321 35918514 

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