[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 042356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042355 
CAZ000-050100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 042355Z - 050100Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET.  HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS.  THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS KERN
AND WRN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY
SINCE 2230Z FROM KERN INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.  DESPITE MODEST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-24 C AT 500 MB/ ARE ATTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25 KT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...WHEN THE AIR MASS
SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE.  UNTIL THAT TIME...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  0-1
KM SHEAR AT 20 KT PER EDW VAD SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

..PETERS.. 03/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...MTR...

34492019 35302058 35932088 36182037 36271906 36121786
35431699 34831639 33841599 32871635 32931713 33611770
34151864 

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