[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032055 
MOZ000-KSZ000-032330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032055Z - 032330Z

CONVECTION WAS INCREASING WITHIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AND
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. RESULTING TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY DEPICT A NRN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING SEWD OVER THE MO RIVER VLY. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER ERN KS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP
850-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS.
DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS LOW-MID 40S F/...
MUCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 300-600 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM ERN KS
INTO WRN MO. CONTINUED QG FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THIS
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS INTO LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MO THROUGH THE EVENING.
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND ONE-DIMENSIONAL HAILCAST MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATE MAXIMUM HAILSTONE SIZE AT OR BELOW ONE INCH FROM THESE
STORMS.

..CARBIN.. 03/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

40029294 38039208 37149308 37079470 37349587 38409596
40029492 

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