[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032240 
TXZ000-040015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0440 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN TO CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032240Z - 040015Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 00Z TO THE EAST OF LBB/MAF...AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHTNING DATA AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER FAR WRN TX...TO THE W/NW OF
LBB.  THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY HIGH BASED...GIVEN LARGE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...AND ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM NRN NEW
MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EWD DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...TO THE EAST OF LBB...WHERE AN AXIS OF GREATER
MOISTURE EXISTS FROM SRN TX NWD TO SJT AND TO THE WEST OF ABI.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT OF WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND
AN INCREASING SLY LLJ THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN TX WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AS STORMS DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO STRONGER
AXIS OF INSTABILITY.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT/COVERAGE.

..PETERS.. 03/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

35070128 34279955 31529799 30629912 31330098 32430193
34410201 

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