[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301943 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO AND SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301943Z - 302045Z

ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
WIND/HAIL...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME
DOWNDRAFT DOMINATED...WITH SHORT LIVED WIND/HAIL THREATS. WW NOT
ANTICIPATED.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION STRETCHED ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR 50 S SZL TO TBN TO MVN. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
2500-3000 J/KG. WEAK NLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND SLY TO THE
SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
GIVEN WEAK CAP...EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. AN ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD MERGE...REDUCING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

..IMY.. 06/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

37919423 37719245 37819079 38348910 38398833 37778737
36748926 36369137 36669331 37189439 

WWWW