[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302028 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-302230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS/NW OK/EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 302028Z - 302230Z

...AREA BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW...


SFC LOW IS DEEPENING ACROSS SW KS BETWEEN PTT AND DDC...WITH SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TO GUYMON AND FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EWD FROM
GCK TO NORTH OF EMP. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/DEEPER MIXING. STORMS SOUTH OF P28 ARE STILL ELEVATED
ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST STRONG UPDRAFTS. AIRMASS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. 18Z SOUNDING FROM LAMONT OK SHOWED JUST A
WEAK CAP AROUND 700 MB...AND WITH SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES
IN SOME LOCATIONS...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE INHIBITION IS
ERODED. 

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GETTING STRONGER AS WELL...WITH KS PROFILERS
INDICATING VALUES AROUND 40 KT. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.

..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

36329762 35889975 35980080 36810135 37930107 38500013
38649892 38149799 37299746 

WWWW