[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292037 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/MN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 553...

VALID 292037Z - 292130Z

SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING NORTHEAST/EAST OF WW 553.  WW 553 IS
BEING REPLACED WITH NEW TORNADO WW 554.

CONSOLIDATION OF ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S...AND ANOTHER FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...CONTINUES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER SYSTEM
IS NOW UNDERWAY...WITH LOW CENTER NOW BELOW 1000 MB EAST/NORTHEAST
OF ABERDEEN SD.  SHEAR PROFILES ALONG STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET EAST OF CYCLONE HAVE BECOME STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF
MINNESOTA...AND RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY AS MOIST WARM
SECTOR ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.

CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ALONG WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF
SURFACE LOW...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT INCREASING/INTENSIFYING SOUTHWARD
AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.  GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING...LARGE SEVERE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY EVOLVE THIS
EVENING ACROSS MINNESOTA.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW
FAST TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT...BUT
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT
RISK FOR TORNADOES...BEFORE BROADER SCALE WIND THREAT BECOMES
PREDOMINANT LATER THIS EVENING

..KERR.. 06/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

46299765 47429702 47429473 45969404 44219478 43539602
43909664 

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