[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292337 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-300100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MN/NWRN IA/WRN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 554...

VALID 292337Z - 300100Z

PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS WRN PARTS OF MN...WITH MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EVIDENT OVER
SWRN MN COUNTIES OF RENVILLE...REDWOOD...COTTONWOOD...JACKSON. 
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WHERE FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ PERSISTS.  THE WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...AND
FAVORABLE CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH AT MPX WITH 0-1 KM
SRH GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY
PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS.

THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD AT 30-40 KT REACHING THE
ERN EDGE OF WW 554 IN THE 0030-0130Z TIME FRAME.  THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
STRONG EAST/WEST THERMAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF DLH. THUS...NEW
WW MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF MN AND WRN WI WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO EAST OF CURRENT WW.

..WEISS.. 06/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

47029411 47119356 46559234 45639192 43809123 43499193
43529311 43849367 

WWWW