[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291852 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-292045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...ERN SD...WRN MN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 553...

VALID 291852Z - 292045Z

CONTINUE WW.

INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...IS
ONGOING NEAR ABERDEEN SD.  THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF SURFACE LOW CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN.  STRONGER
2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOW FOCUSED ALONG AN AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF LOW INTO AREAS OF MINNESOTA EAST OF FARGO.
...AND NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION OF SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN
NEXT FEW HOURS.  WARM FRONT...JUST EAST OF LOW...WILL REMAIN FOCUS
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  

NEW STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z...ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHEAST OF LOW...AS IT SHIFTS INTO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE MINNESOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.  THIS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS PIVOTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TOWARD CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...WITH
STRENGTHENING FLOW FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASING
RISK FOR TORNADOES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 06/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

45489922 46089865 46199760 46039662 44809578 43909640
43959716 44539786 44619836 

WWWW