[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291614 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-291815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291614Z - 291815Z

...STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND INTO CNTRL PA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAIN...ISOLD SVR THREAT PERSISTS AND A WATCH MAY BE POSSIBLE...

CURRENT WV IMAGES SUGGEST MCV APPROACHING SRN VT WITH A MORE WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL OH. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 80S IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
/MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/ . THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT NOW EXTENDING
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/NRN NY WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORMS THIS
AFTN. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM GRAY ME AND ALBANY INDICATE ABOUT 20-25 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 IN...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH TRAINING/MERGING
CELLS. 

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP GIVEN COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...SO DOWNDRAFT CAPE WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THOSE AREAS WHERE
INSOLATION IS GREATEST. 

WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH ONGOING STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ERN PA
THROUGH SERN NY...OR POSSIBLY LATER THIS AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IN OH VALLEY REGION.

..TAYLOR.. 06/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

43916979 41977098 40537433 39637755 41167766 42687600
43747360 44057268 44507105 

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