[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291601 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-291700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291601Z - 291700Z

WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

WARM SECTOR SOUTHEAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA IS VERY MOIST AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH
SURFACE HEATING.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER
CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

STRENGTH OF CAP FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS STILL A CONCERN...BUT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF DEEPENING LOW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THIS.  NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF ABERDEEN...JUST AHEAD OF
LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DRYING...NOSING INTO THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY.  IT APPEARS THAT...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD THE
JAMESTOWN/FARGO ND AND ALEXANDRIA MN AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS COULD OCCUR
AS EARLY AS 18-20Z...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS LIKELY.

..KERR.. 06/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

45789932 46659878 46599685 46319535 45459513 44789539
44219632 44439752 44619827 44999910 

WWWW