[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290630 
NEZ000-SDZ000-290800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB AND SRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290630Z - 290800Z

THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH CHERRY COUNTY NEB...POSSIBLY
SPREADING INTO EXTREME SRN SD. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS STORMS MOVE EWD THROUGH CHERRY COUNTY.

EARLY THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CHERRY
COUNTY IN WRN NEB SSWWD INTO NERN CO. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON
THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER CHERRY COUNTY MOVING
EWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
STORMS WITH MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC AND
NAM OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML
EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS AND SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 06/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR...

41920124 43210116 43199938 42359897 

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