[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290412
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290411 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-290545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN/CENTRAL ND...EXTREME NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...

VALID 290411Z - 290545Z

MAINTAIN CURRENT WW ALONG/AHEAD OF SERN MT MCS. 
ADDITIONALLY...PORTIONS ND E OF WW 550 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
ANOTHER SEVERE TSTM WW.

ARCHING BAND OF TSTMS WITH HISTORY OF NUMEROUS SEVERE WIND/HAIL
REPORTS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING NEWD ACROSS SERN MT INTO SWRN ND.
 NRN PORTION OF COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS OVER NERN MT/NWRN
ND.  HOWEVER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE ACROSS
REMAINDER SERN MT AND WRN/CENTRAL ND...BOTH FOR MCS AND FOR NEWER
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING ACROSS
S-CENTRAL/SWRN ND.

STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN ID/WRN MT -- HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE EWD.
AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES...FOREGOING PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS WILL
RESULT IN DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE...NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN PORTIONS
WY/MT BORDER...LIFTING NEWD INTO SWRN ND.  ASSOCIATED
BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL YIELD STRONG
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR...ABOVE
STABLE SFC LAYER.  LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS -- INITIALLY ALIGNED FROM
SERN SD NWWD TO SERN MT -- SHOULD SHIFT NWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WAA/MOIST ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BOOST ELEVATED MUCAPES INTO 2000-3000 J/KG
RANGE OVER MUCH OF SRN/WRN ND. THEREFORE...EXPECT MCS TO MOVE OVER
MUCH OF THAT REGION...WITH THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE
GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

49010006 48669967 47639931 46889934 46619951 46269996
46080044 46020111 45540283 45280408 45130494 45270548
45480557 45810499 46270480 47140495 47890545 48990674
48980404 

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