[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290747 
SDZ000-290915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551...

VALID 290747Z - 290915Z

CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER N CNTRL SD MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF
MAINLY LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE NEWD NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STORMS WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING E OF WW 551 INTO NERN SD...BUT ANOTHER WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF LIFT AND
THETA-E ADVECTION N OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL SD. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. WITH
A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.
MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP E OF WW 551 INTO
PARTS OF NERN SD NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS SUGGESTS A WW E OF WW 551 WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE NEEDED.

..DIAL.. 06/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

44439842 45020070 45670062 45939871 45329774 

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