[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290315 
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-290415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL SD...N-CENTRAL/NWRN NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547...549...

VALID 290315Z - 290415Z

REPLACEMENT SEVERE TSTM WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT HOUR FOR MUCH
OF AREA COVERED BY WW 547...AS WELL AS WRN PORTIONS WW 549 --
GENERALLY W OF MO RIVER.  TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING...AND
RESULTANT FORMATION/DEEPENING OF NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER.  SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING GUST THREAT CONTINUES WITH ANY NEW CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS OVER WW AREA. SAME WITH EXISTING CONVECTION MOVING NEWD
ACROSS NRN NEB PANHANDLE...AND WITH ISOLATED CLUSTER OF TSTMS
BACKBUILDING ACROSS PORTIONS ZIEBACH COUNTY.  SFC AND 850 MB
ANALYSES INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS REMAINING ALIGNED
SE-NW...DIAGONALLY ACROSS SD FROM YKN-2WX.  WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
WAA PROFILE...RICH MOISTURE AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED
MUCAPES COMMONLY 2000-3000 J/KG.  ROUGHLY 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
INDICATED AS WELL...BASED ON MODIFIED LBF/RAP RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CINH OVER AREA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF FORCED ASCENT
ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SURGES.

..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

42060262 42720288 43300244 43730215 44860243 45270315
45410348 45710370 45920326 45980183 45940114 45550028
44889908 44279868 43619825 43089856 42599968 42210056 

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