[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290148 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-290345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290148Z - 290345Z

TSTMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SWATH FROM
W-CENTRAL KS TO NWRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.  ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
SRN ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS TX/OK PANHANDLES...PRIND LARGEST SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WILL BE WITH TSTMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS WRN KS.  AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

ACTIVITY IS FCST TO SPREAD/MOVE NEWD INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS...AND INTO STRENGTHENING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW
SUPPORTED BY 30-40 KT LLJ.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 7.5-8.5 DEG
C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER REGION.  INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY WILL
TRANSITION FROM SFC-BASED WITH CONSIDERABLE CINH -- AS EVIDENT IN
00Z DDC RAOB -- TO ELEVATED MUCAPES APCHG 1500 J/KG BASED ON
MODIFIED RAOB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS.  DEEP-LAYER ABSOLUTE SHEAR VALUES
ARE RATHER WEAK - I.E. 25-30 KT 0-6 KM LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER
EFFECTIVE SHEARS MAY REACH INTO 30-40 KT RANGE.  PRESENCE OF LARGE
CINH INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE
SOON...PERHAPS CONSOLIDATING INTO DOMINANT MULTICELL CLUSTER.

..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

35630302 36480269 37230176 38130149 39050172 39390172
39890116 39980050 39939991 39349934 38889891 38469887
37939887 37249936 36879977 36310046 35470247 35270277 

WWWW