[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 282326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282326 
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-290100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SD...N-CENTRAL NEB AND NRN NEB
PANHANDLE...SWRN ND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 547...

VALID 282326Z - 290100Z

CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN
SD...PRIMARILY IN BROKEN LINE FROM ERN BUTTE COUNTY SEWD TO NEAR
PHP...THEN SWD THROUGH JACKSON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE
INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH FULL RANGE OF SEVERE POSSIBLE. 
ALSO...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING INVOF SFC WARM
FRONT/CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDING SEWD FROM W-CENTRAL SD ACROSS
CHARLES MIX COUNTY REGION.  ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM SHERIDAN COUNTY NEB NEWD TO PORTIONS BENNETT
COUNTY SD SHOULD MOVE EWD OVER CHERRY COUNTY AND AREAS JUST N OF
NEB/SD BORDER. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR BOTH BOW AND SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
ACROSS N-CENTRAL NEB AND CENTRAL/SRN SD SHOW WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS SUITABLE FOR MAINTAINING SEVERE HAIL/DOWNDRAFTS TO
SFC...BENEATH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  CINH MIN IS
EVIDENT INVOF BOUNDARY OVER SRN SD.  ACCORDINGLY...RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE TSTMS IS POSSIBLE FROM PHP ESEWD ACROSS CHARLES MIX
COUNTY...WHERE TCU ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY. MID 60S TO LOW 70S
DEW POINTS IN FROM MO RIVER EWD CONTRIBUTE TO NEARLY 4000 J/KG
MLCAPE.  LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ALONG AND N
OF BOUNDARY BY BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...RESULTING IN 200-300
J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM AGL LAYER...AS WELL AS 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...GGW...

42040083 42030335 47050411 47030147 46110101 45079895
44299694 42919685 42749838 42139961 

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