[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 282213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282213 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-282345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN CO...SERN WY...SRN NEB
PANHANDLE...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282213Z - 282345Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRYLINE
FROM WRN-MOST NEB PANHANDLE TO BETWEEN SNY-AKO...THEN SWD ALONG
KS/CO BORDER AREA...THROUGH HEAT LOW OVER SERN CO.  QUASISTATIONARY
CONFLUENCE LINE IS EVIDENT IN SFC WINDS AND GLD REFLECTIVITY
IMAGERY...FROM INVOF SCOTT/WALLACE COUNTIES KS NWWD...CROSSING
DRYLINE OVER KIT CARSON COUNTY CO AND EXTENDING FARTHER NW TO NEAR
AKO.

HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BOTH OVER SERN WY INVOF
CYS...AND BETWEEN AKO-GXY OVER NERN CO.  AS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS
DRYLINE AND INTO LARGER SBCAPE...INTENSIFICATION TO SEVERE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE.  DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY OCCUR ALONG CONFLUENCE/DRY LINES. 
HOT SFC TEMPS AND VERY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE EVIDENT E OF
DRYLINE -- BOTH N AND S OF CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY...THOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR IS GREATEST N OF LATTER BOUNDARY WHERE SFC FLOW IS ELY-NELY. 
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTING 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AND BACKED FLOW FROM EXTREME NWRN
KS NNWWD OVER NEB PANHANDLE IS CONTRIBUTING TO 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR.  THIS INDICATES SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS SUSTAINED TO SFC THROUGH SUCH A WELL MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

42020085 41200074 40180095 38650095 39130275 40080431
41360486 41950427 

WWWW