[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 282350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282349 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-290145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 546...

VALID 282349Z - 290145Z

PRIND CONVECTION NOW OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN MT WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE
POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINDER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE
STILL IN MT.  THEREFORE REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE
SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION OF WW 546.

BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 2345Z FROM ERN
PETROLEUM/GARFIELD COUNTIES SSEWD ACROSS TREASURE/ERN BIG HORN
COUNTIES -- WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERE GUSTS/HAIL AND RISK FOR
A FEW TORNADOES.  SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES EACH ARE POSSIBLE. 
ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCH DIAMETER IN
BIG HORN COUNTY DURING PAST HOUR.  TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LARGER
WITH ACTIVITY OVER SRN PORTION OF BAND...WHERE COMBINATION OF
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS GREATEST. 
ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEE-SIDE SFC LOW -- ANALYZED
OVER N-CENTRAL WY -- WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN STRONG ELY SFC WND
COMPONENT OVER SERN MT...ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 25-35 KT
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES
2500-3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF E-CENTRAL/SERN MT INVOF SFC MOIST
AXIS...WHERE DEW POINTS REACH INTO MID 60S F.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

45240397 45040846 48790848 49020395 

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