[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 282150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282150 
COZ000-WYZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-282315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AZ...WRN CO...CENTRAL/ERN UT...PORTIONS EXTREME
SRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545...

VALID 282150Z - 282315Z

CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE THREAT HAS SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS WRN CO
...ACROSS ERN COUNTIES OF WW 545.  AREA FARTHER NE OVER
W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL CO IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION NOW OVER PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND SERN CO WILL
MOVE NEWD TOWARD MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OVER MORE OF N-CENTRAL AND
W-CENTRAL CO DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINTAINING DAMAGING GUST
POTENTIAL.  MEASURED SEVERE GUST OF 54 KT HIT GJT WITHIN PAST
HOUR...WITH DAMAGE AND HIGHER PUBLIC ESTIMATES NEARBY...AND 48 KT
GUST WAS CLOCKED AT CNY.

BROAD PLUME OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
EJECTING NEWD FROM AZ. AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...PRIOR STRONG
SFC INSOLATION HAS RESULTED IN WEAK CINH AND FAVORABLY STEEP
DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS REGION.  VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRONG AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW...ALONG WITH WELL
MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLY DAMAGING
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FROM VALLEY BOTTOMS UP WWD OR SWWD FACING SLOPES.


MEANWHILE...SYNOPTIC DRYING HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF NRN AZ...AND
THAT AREA HAS BEEN CLEARED FROM WW PER COORDINATION W/FGZ.  OVER
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS DRYING WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS
REGION INTO SERN UT/SWRN CO...REDUCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

39331211 40791181 41201098 41720824 41670678 41030606
39990561 38330623 37150797 36970902 36780995 37051193
38681214 

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