[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 282002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282001 
KSZ000-COZ000-282100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN  KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282001Z - 282100Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

ZONE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN TROUGH.  THIS ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES...NEAR CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FORCING HAS
SUPPORTED RECENT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE/SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF LIBERAL KS.  THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND
DEVELOP NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE 22-23Z
TIME FRAME.

CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS MAY LIMIT
VIGOR OF UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100F...VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...AND POSSIBLY EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
LARGER SCALE COLD POOL WITH STRONG WIND THREAT.

..KERR.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

37800191 38200122 39280125 39900066 39749940 38839896
37919957 37430016 37090107 37060253 

WWWW