[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281932 
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-282130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281932Z - 282130Z

TIMING OF INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WWS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

CAPPING MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT.  OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. INHIBITION APPEARS WEAKEST WHERE
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE IS ENHANCED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND THIS
TERRAIN FEATURE MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
JETLET IN BELT OF FLOW EXTENDING OUT OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
IS ALREADY PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA...WITH ANOTHER
JET STREAK UPSTREAM NOSING ACROSS THE WYOMING/COLORADO FRONT RANGE. 
FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES COULD SUPPORT INITIATION OF ACTIVITY AS
EARLY AS 21-22Z.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES
ARE ALREADY STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

45270390 44500203 43830091 43380028 43000201 42490258
41860251 41570341 43070393 44620455 44980445 

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