[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281918 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-282115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...IND/OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281918Z - 282115Z

...TSTMS MAY PERIODICALLY PRODUCE PULSE TYPE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
MORE ORGANIZED THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...

CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS IND/OH SO FAR HAS BEEN RATHER DISORGANIZED
AS EVIDENCED BY PULSE NATURE OF STORMS NOTED ON LOCAL RADARS AND
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THERE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
STORMS...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE RATHER COOL...AROUND -9C FROM THE 12Z WILMINGTON
SOUNDING...WHICH SUPPORTS STEEP LAPSE RATES. FLOW ALOFT THOUGH IS
WEAK...WHICH WILL TEND TO DISCOURAGE STORM ORGANIZATION. AIRMASS HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-2500
J/KG...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS...THOUGH SHORT
LIVED...UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A COLD POOL...THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP...AND A WATCH WOULD BE CONSIDERED.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...WIND
DAMAGE AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

..TAYLOR.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

39628660 40578705 41138670 40478455 40708272 41008082
39968056 39138156 38568260 38908441 38728531