[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281836 
MTZ000-WYZ000-282030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL MT/N CNTRL WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281836Z - 282030Z

ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING SOUTH/EAST OF
LEWISTOWN...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.  TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT CAPPING MID-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.  BEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MORE SPECIFICALLY NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE
BIG HORNS.  THIS IS WHERE STRONG DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING
FOCUSED...DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  OROGRAPHIC FORCING SEEMS
LIKELY TO SUPPORT INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL STORMS BY 20-21Z...WHEN
MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG.  GIVEN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

..KERR.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

46471005 47030939 47140812 46230660 45430601 44500623
44300706 44360803 44700890 45200976 

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