[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280030 
MTZ000-280230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539...

VALID 280030Z - 280230Z

BROKEN LINE OF SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
MT THROUGH 02Z...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SVR THREAT OVER
SERN MT APPEARS TO BE WANING...AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW
539 EARLY THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENEWD INTO CENTRAL/NCENTRAL MT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN
MT. A 50-75 MILE WIDE NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ACROSS
NCENTRAL/CENTRAL INTO SERN MT THROUGH THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
MAY POSE A BRIEF SVR THREAT NORTH OF WW 539 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
OF NCENTRAL MT...00Z GGW SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LIMITED INSTABILITY
OVER NERN MT SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT SPATIAL AREA FOR A NEW WW
NNE OF WW 539.

FARTHER SE...CIRRUS CANOPY OF SERN MT MAY LIMIT ANY SVR THREAT IN
THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED...AND IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS PRIOR TO 02Z...THEN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED FROM WW 539.

..CROSBIE.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

47881197 48991064 48850922 48260808 47440802 45060427
45020878 46590973 47511110