[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280028 
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-280230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN MN...NRN WI...WRN/CENTRAL
UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...SRN/CENTRAL LS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538...540...

VALID 280028Z - 280230Z

MAINTAIN WWS ALONG/E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH TSTM
COMPLEX OVER SERN MN/NWRN WI.  AREA S OF WW 538 IN WI MAY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WW BEFORE 02Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 540.

GUST FRONT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NW OF MSP METRO HAS SURGED SEWD
AND UNDERCUT MUCH OF PREVIOUSLY SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER METRO AREA. 
MEANWHILE SEVERE BOWING SEGMENT CONTINUES TO SURGE NEWD INTO WRN
WI...AFTER PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE GUST OF 51 KT AT STATION OEO. 
PORTIONS WASHBURN/BARRON/SAWYER/RUSK COUNTIES WI MAY EXPERIENCE
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS BOW PASSES DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
 DISCRETE TSTMS E AND S OF BOW AND GUST FRONT ARE MOVING THROUGH
VERY FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOW
70S F SUPPORTING ROUGHLY 3000 J/KG MLCAPES...USING MODIFIED 00Z MPX
RAOB.  ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN PORTIONS WW 540
INTO WRN WW 538...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION INCREASING FROM
ONTONAGON COUNTY MI SWWD ACROSS NRN WI.

OVER LS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADATE FROM MIXTURE OF WIND AND HAIL
TO JUST HAIL...WITH NWD EXTENT.  COLD/STABLE AIR MASS DEEPENS WITH
NWD EXTENT ACROSS LAKE...REDUCING DCAPE AND LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED ALOFT TO BE MAINTAINED TO SFC.  HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL WAA ATOP MARINE LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED
CONVECTION -- SOME WITH STRONG GUSTS SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
-- AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE.

..EDWARDS.. 06/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

44709325 45529290 46179198 46989085 47678891 47708782
46968573 45228574 45288833 44368925 43298948 42809091
44279172 44699166