[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272001 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/NERN CO....NWRN KS SWD INTO SERN NM/SWRN
TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272001Z - 272200Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BY
22Z. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE AND GENERALLY
UNORGANIZED SVR THREAT EXPECTED.

BROAD SWLY FLOW WILL AID IN CONTINUED SLOW EWD SHIFT OF DRYLINE/LEE
TROUGH TO AN AXIS FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE NERN CO/NWRN KS BORDER
SSWWD TO NEAR CIMARRON COUNTY OK THEN SWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN NM FROM CAO TO THE SACRAMENTO MTN FOOTHILLS OF SERN NM BY 22Z.
AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG /HIGHEST VALUES OVER WRN KS AND THE WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLES/ WILL EXIST. MLCINH SHOULD DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY BY
21-22Z...THAT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
ALREADY DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER SERN NM HIGH PLAINS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST...GIVEN GENERALLY SLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH AND 20-30 KTS OF MID WLY FLOW. ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SERN NM WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS BACKED AND MID LEVEL FLOW WAS WNWLY. THE OTHER
EXCEPTION WILL BE FARTHER NORTH OVER NWRN KS/NERN CO...WHERE BACKED
FLOW EXISTS NORTH OF SFC LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER
THAN FARTHER SOUTH /30 KTS PER RECENT PLT PROFILER DATA/. IN BOTH
THESE AREAS...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...EPZ...

34880447 34250492 33020520 32460487 32110382 32110331
35610164 37320019 38999965 39730014 40060200 40410267
39980325 38410173 36910257 36250343 

WWWW