[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271908 
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...CENTRAL/SERN MO AND SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271908Z - 272115Z

ISOLATED WET MICRORBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO WEAKLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF
THE SVR THREAT.

WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES FROM 8-9 DEG
C...BENEATH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR MICROBURST WINDS MOST LIKELY WHERE STORM
MERGERS OCCUR. DESPITE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINS
COOL /-8 TO -9 DEG C AT 500 MB/ AND COOL SFC DOWNDRAFT AIR  IN THE
LOWER 70S MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

..CROSBIE.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

38829244 37039350 35869356 35069284 35059161 35589057
37048921 38098910 39348999 39339186 

WWWW