[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272008 
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272008Z - 272215Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL BACK OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
STATES/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS
BECOMING FOCUSED FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO EAST CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST WYOMING.  THIS IS IN WAKE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
ALREADY LIFTING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...AND NOT WELL HANDLED BY 12Z NAM/GFS.

AS LEAD SYSTEM CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOISTENING AND
HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN STRONGER STORMS.  AS LEADING EDGE OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 21-23Z.

..KERR.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

44070599 44640591 44900450 44520366 43700287 42980225
42590147 41900161 41610223 41670346 41990423 42810530
43410571 

WWWW