[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271814 
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-272015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL WI INTO UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271814Z - 272015Z

AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY
OF A WW.

SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING CAP/INCREASING CAPE...WHICH WILL EXCEED
2000 J/KG ACROSS MOST AREAS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD IS
EVIDENT IN CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC
NEXT FEW HOURS...INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY.
 AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...NOW
SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO...BUT 20 TO 30 KT FLOW FIELDS WILL ENHANCE
STORM PROPAGATION...AND POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN MOST
VIGOROUS STORMS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...

46598737 46068765 45378808 44328869 43668918 43198977
43039132 44539033 45189001 45759025 46818957 

WWWW