[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271753 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-272000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271753Z - 272000Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

IN THE WAKE OF WEAK IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...ZONE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS SUPPORTED
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE OMAHA
AREA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD WITH FORCING
EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS.

LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  WITH
FURTHER HEATING/WEAKENING INHIBITION...CAPE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
PARCELS MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS GRADUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN THIS LAYER. 
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 06/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

41359737 42069679 43329574 43299384 42419310 41419371
40669488 40219646 40349753 

WWWW