[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261930 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-262200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT...WRN ND/SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261930Z - 262200Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF ERN WY/MT AND THE
WRN DAKOTAS MAY NEED TO BE COVERED WITH A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

RADAR AND LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WAS INCREASING
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM WY INTO SERN MT THIS AFTERNOON.
MOIST LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF A SFC LOW OVER NWRN SD
WILL CONTINUE TO AID AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG AN INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS FROM NWRN SD TO NEAR MT/ND BORDER. STORMS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WY/MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE SLOWLY AS GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AS CAPPING IS OVERCOME
BY SFC HEATING AND FORCING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. A S-N BAND OF 30-40KT
MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CELLS AND STORM CLUSTERS. HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A LARGER-SCALE MCS
LATER THIS EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

45090257 44350506 44620666 46250572 46830509 47930386
48240245 47920140 47290172 46290209 

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