[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261838 
NMZ000-262045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/CENTRAL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261838Z - 262045Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
GALLINAS AND SAN MATEO MTNS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY...AND ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. ISOLATED DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BY 20Z. A GREATER SVR THREAT
MAY OCCUR AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS EWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LAST NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS SENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL
WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVER CENTRAL NM. 12Z SOUNDING
FROM ABQ INDICATED MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500
J/KG/ WOULD BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN AS DEEP MIXING
CONTINUES TO OCCUR. LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
MAINTAINED OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE
AHEAD OF WRN NM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AROUND 30 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...COMBINED WITH SELY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD
ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OVER THE
ECENTRAL/SERN NM HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER WEST...VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD AID IN GREATER MIXING. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAKER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WOULD FAVOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AS THE MOST LIKELY SVR
THREAT OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY.

..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

35040739 35840718 36500508 36300396 35680322 34450336
33090358 32990409 32960562 33970735 

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