[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261829 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261829Z - 262030Z

A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
WRN MN. SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND ABR 18Z RAOB WERE SUGGESTING CAP IS QUICKLY
ERODING FROM ABR AREA NWD ACROSS ERN ND...AND ALONG A WARM FRONT
ACROSS WRN MN. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG WELL-DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR NEAR SFC-BASED STORM INCITATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND WARM FRONT AND
30-45KT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW THROUGH MID
LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE INTENSE STORM UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED
MESOCYCLONES. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A
COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS TRACK NEAR/ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

46339314 45769634 44890089 47080176 48459334 

WWWW