[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261800 
COZ000-NMZ000-262000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CO AND NERN/NCENTRAL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261800Z - 262000Z

ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN/CENTRAL COLORADO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY UNDER MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHER EAST...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO...NERN NM. DMGG
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING
QUICKLY OVER THE MTNS OF NCENTRAL NM...WRN/CENTRAL CO WHERE MLCAPES
WERE FROM 500-700 J/KG. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER ERN UT...AFFECTS
OF MODERATE WIND FIELDS /30-40 KTS AT 500 MB PER RECENT AZTEC NM
PROFILER/ ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASINGLY DEEP MIXED /INVERTED-V/ ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO WIND FIELD
OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO AND NERN NM SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT
EWD EXTENT OF STORM MVMNT AND SVR THREAT INTO THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...TRENDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DIMINISHING
MLCINH OVER THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH BASED STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THIS AREA AFTER 20Z. FARTHER EAST...LEE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER FAR ERN CO MAY PROVIDE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR ISO SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z...WHEN CINH WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. AGAIN HIGH
BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION IN THIS AREA DUE TO 30+ DWPT SPREADS AND
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FAVOR DMGG WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

40900501 40750649 40290773 39060849 38150861 37080805
36320703 36090689 36110519 36300404 36980309 37710226
38820210 39570225 40230256 40840370 

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