[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261651 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-261915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...PARTS OF MA/CT/RI/SRN NH AND SWRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261651Z - 261915Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM ERN
NY INTO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IF STORM COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE INCREASES.

SFC TEMPS HAVE HEATED QUICKLY TO AROUND 90F BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM THE LWR HUDSON VLY ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. THIS
HEATING...COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF STALLED/RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...HAVE
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
OVER 1500 J/KG/. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE WHITE AND GREEN
MTNS...ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS HAS ALLOWED WEAK CAP TO BE OVERCOME
THESE LOCATIONS WITH STORM INITIATION NOW OCCURRING. IN ADDITION TO
THIS CONVECTION DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT...TROUGH...AND NEAR SEA BREEZES SHOULD PROMOTE
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE WITH A
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
STORM AND/OR BOUNDARY MERGERS AND COLLISIONS COULD RESULT IN AN
ENHANCED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT SPREADING INTO THE INSTABILITY
AXIS OVER PARTS OF MA AND SRN NH BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF A CORRIDOR OF
MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY CAN BE ANTICIPATED...THEN A
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE PARTS OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

42077183 41877317 41887376 41927442 42337450 42777429
43147408 43717417 43737415 44187392 44147375 43837319
43737232 44067140 44647028 44776961 44236951 43787033
42927092 42247112 

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