[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261550 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-261745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261550Z - 261745Z

STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ND AND NERN SD
LATE THIS MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS SOMEWHAT
REMOVED FROM GRADUALLY INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WITHIN
CAPPED AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
MAY INCREASE IF ACTIVITY CAN PERSIST NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL VORT CENTER APPEARS TO
BE DRIVING AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM ERN ND INTO NERN SD LATE THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES AND
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF
LARGE HAIL FROM A FEW OF THESE CELLS. HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE
FURTHER AS UPSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AND FUELS
STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45629628 45359753 45369867 45929931 46579935 46859915
47479853 47999781 48159710 48049591 47759518 46689512 

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