[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260437 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-260600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN IL...IA WITHIN ABOUT 80-90 NM N OF
I-80.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 260437Z - 260600Z

POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY PRECIP CHARACTER...WITHIN BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NRN IL WWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND
W-CENTRAL IA.  BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR...AS WELL AS DAMAGING
WET MICROBURSTS.  AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF THREAT
APPEARS TO BECOME MORE SUSTAINED...WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST INFLOW WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIP
GENERATION AND LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN RATES LOCALLY 2-3
INCHES/HOUR...PARTICULARLY IN CORES OF SLOW MOVING HP STORMS.

VWP DATA AND RUC HODOGRAPHS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...RESULTING FROM STRONG VEERING IN LOWEST 3 KM AGL WIND
PROFILES.  SRH VALUES OF AROUND 150 J/KG ARE EVIDENT IN 0-1 KM
LAYER...ACCOUNTING FOR BULK OF SRH IN ENTIRE PROFILE.  ALTHOUGH
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK -- GENERALLY 15-20 KT AROUND 500 MB --
BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTRIBUTES TO AROUND 40 KT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WHEN USING EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCEL.  RIGHTWARD MOVING STORMS
-- TURNING GENERALLY SWD IN THIS KINEMATIC PROFILE -- WILL HAVE
20-30 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WITH BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCH PW. 
MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG ARE EVIDENT BASED ON MODIFIED OAX RAOB AND
RUC SOUNDINGS.

..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

42218880 41878962 41599059 41789320 41789556 42299534
42579446 42879309 42879249 42569185 42279084 42419030
42678859 42388846 

WWWW