[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260449 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-260645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 527...

VALID 260449Z - 260645Z

SQLN WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E ACROSS
WRN ND IN WW 527.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY REQUIRE A SMALL ADDITIONAL
WATCH E OF WW 527 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

COMPOSITE RADAR DATA SHOW APEX OF BOW-SHAPED MCS MOVING ENE AT 45
KTS INVOF ISN IN NW ND.  TRAILING SWRN PART OF COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE
MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE.  THE SRN
PART OF THE LINE HAS UNDERGONE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE PAST
1-2 HRS.  IN CONTRAST...THE NRN PART OF THE COMPLEX HAS REMAINED
VERY STRONG AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERSECT EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ORIENTED ENE/WSW ACROSS NW ND.

LATEST SURFACE AND VWP DATA SHOW AXIS OF GREATEST SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ EXTENDING FROM NEAR ISN SEWD
TO NEAR BIS.  THIS CORRIDOR ALSO CORRESPONDS TO AXIS OF STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL INFLOW...WITH 0-1 KM SSELY FLOW OF 25-30 KTS.  GIVEN THIS
SETUP...PART OF THE WRN ND MCS MAY SOON TURN SOMEWHAT MORE E OR ESE
ALONG INSTABILITY/INFLOW GRADIENT TOWARD CNTRL ND.  GIVEN THE
PREVAILING INSTABILITY/SHEAR...SUCH MOTION MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL E OF WW 527 EARLY SUNDAY.

..CORFIDI.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

45900121 45900238 45880342 45940416 46260457 46690474
47440437 48010399 48730348 48930241 48970074 48939953
48489897 47469852 46529890 45980003 

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