[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260320 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-260445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MT...WRN ND...EXTREME NWRN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 527...

VALID 260320Z - 260445Z

CONVECTION ACROSS E-CENTRAL/NERN MT HAS EVOLVED INTO MCS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO WRN ND DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND DURING PAST 1-2
HORUS. TORNADO WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR BOW ECHO MESOCYCLONE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS...ACROSS
ERN MT AND WRN ND -- SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY
DISCRETE CONVECTION.  INCREASING SBCINH IS LOWERING PROBABILITIES
FOR ADDITIONAL/DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN SD/SERN MT BUT AIR
MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE.  SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MOIST AXIS
 NEAR ONL...PIR...DIK..SDY LINE.  MODIFIED GGW RAOB...AND RUC
SOUNDINGS FROM NWRN SD ACROSS MT/ND BORDER AREA INDICATE LOW 60S F
SFC DEW POINTS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT. 
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOWS 25-35 KT ARE INDICATED FOR VARIOUS EWD-NEWD
MOTIONS OBSERVED OVER PAST 1-2 HOURS.

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER WRN PORTIONS
WW WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE STABILIZED AIR MASS.

..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

44970295 44980781 48980575 48990045 

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