[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251842 
COZ000-NMZ000-252015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251842Z - 252015Z

TSTMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF NERN NM/SCENTRAL CO WILL
DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN NM/SERN CO OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
FRONT RANGE AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ECENTRAL CO. ISOLATED SVR
WINDS/HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS NM.
THIS FEATURE WAS SAMPLED BY THE ABQ VWP WHICH IN THE LAST 1-2 HOURS
SHOWED 30-35 KTS IN THE 3-5 KM LAYER...AROUND 10 KTS GREATER THAN
THE 15Z RUC OR 12Z NAM/GFS. CONVECTION THAT HAD DEVELOPED RELATIVELY
EARLY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OVER NERN NM/SERN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
LITTLE CINH REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVELS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
BACKED. GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE CLOUD LAYER...
AND MODERATE WIND FIELDS...CONVECTION MAY REMAIN LINEARLY ORGANIZED
AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT. GIVEN ONLY MODERATE
INSTABILITY...MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...A MORE ORGANIZED SVR
THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED
FOR GREATER ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

35570539 37030503 38210479 39070429 39870332 39730238
39310208 38310214 37240290 35460376 35340445 

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