[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251940 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-252145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NY...NRN VT/NRN NH AND MUCH OF ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251940Z - 252145Z

SCT TSTMS OVER SRN QUEBEC CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD AROUND
25 KTS INTO WRN/NRN ME...AND POSSIBLY NERN NY/NRN VT/NRN NH IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. 

CONVECTION ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.
MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS SAMPLED BY
BURLINGTON VT...AND CARIBOU MAINE WILL SUPPORT SOME LINEAR
ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE
MODERATE WIND FIELDS AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE PROBABLE. RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
OFFSET MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL MITIGATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALTHOUGH WRN/NRN ME
IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE ISOLATED SVR THREAT...RECENT TRENDS
IN CONVECTIVE LINE MOTION FROM WNW SUGGESTS THAT FAR NERN NY/NRN VT
AND NRN NH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME SVR THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

47506914 46077024 45387090 45097161 45037296 45037339
44977406 44747422 44397387 44157312 44207212 44367110
44417044 44786958 45086881 45446830 45956776 47086781
47326836 

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