[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251743 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-251945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO..SRN/CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL IND...WRN/CENTRAL
OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251743Z - 251945Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
GIVEN LACK OF ORGANIZED THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG/ AXIS EXTENDING FROM STL METRO AREA/SERN MO ENEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN IL INTO WRN OH. DESPITE VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER FLOW DUE
TO PROXIMITY OF REGION TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS...MODERATELY COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-8 TO -9 DEG C AT 500 MB/ WILL FAVOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS.
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GREATEST IN COVERAGE ALONG A WEAKLY
DEFINED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF STL NEWD TO CENTRAL
OH. GIVEN THE MULTICELLULAR NATURE OF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED ON THE MESO-SCALE AIDING IN A MARGINAL SVR
THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

41098287 40888516 40878619 40498829 40048943 39159021
38639074 38219074 37669051 37848925 39188595 39918224
40438179 

WWWW