[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250823 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-250900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB THROUGH CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521...

VALID 250823Z - 250900Z

THE PRIMARY THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED TO HEAVY RAIN FROM NERN NEB
THROUGH CNTRL IA. WW 521 WILL BE CANCELLED AT 0845Z.

A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING
LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION N OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL IA SWWD THROUGH SERN NEB INTO NWRN KS. LIFT AND THETA-E
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF WW 521. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS.
THIS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND OUTFLOW
DOMINANT. HOWEVER...THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME
BACKBUILDING ALONG THE SWRN FLANKS OF THE MCS OVER IA...AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN EWD WITH SLOW SWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD
POOL. RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN
LIKELY NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..DIAL.. 06/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

42029389 41249826 42069858 42679746 42749356 42429236 

WWWW